Arizona will topple the expected U.S. growth rate of 3 percent in 2007 thanks in large part to the state's population boom, according to Arizona State University economist Edward Prescott.

Prescott, the keynote speaker at the Arizona Bank & Trust Economic Summit 2007, "Trends to Bank On," said Arizona will continue to outpace national trends, but cautioned "it won't last forever."

"The Arizona trend dominates," Prescott, a 2004 Nobel Prize winner and chair of economics at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, told the more than 300 who attended the Tuesday morning breakfast seminar at Phoenix Country Club.

Katie Pushor, chief executive and president of the Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce, said the state is the second destination for domestic migration next to Florida and the eighth internationally.

"People want to move to this state," she said. "There is an overwhelming perception of opportunity here."

Pushor said job creation will focus on serving the growing population, namely the health care, construction, retail and consumer services, and the hospitality sector, which is being boosted by three college football bowl games, PGA events and the Super Bowl in 2008.

Unemployment is the lowest in 25 years, hovering under 4 percent, but escalating housing prices are keeping some workers from moving here, Pushor said.

"Affordability is really an issue for the work force," she said.

Arizona exports also could be stronger. "We are not participating in that global economy yet," Pushor said.

In his 30-minute address, Prescott said "the dollar will not crash" -- despite it being outpaced by its chief competitors, the euro, the British pound and the Canadian dollar.

Chris Casacchia
The Business Journal